Recent advances in the development of a European Mars climate model in Oxford

Since the early 1990s, efforts have been under way in Oxford to develop a range of numerical weather and climate prediction models for various studies of the Martian atmosphere and near-surface environment. Early versions of the Oxford model were more in the way of 'process models', aimed at relatively idealised studies e.g. of baroclinic instability[1] and low-level western boundary currents in the cross-equatorial solsticial Hadley circulation[2]. Since the mid-1990s, however, the group in Oxford have worked closely with the modelling group at LMD in Paris to develop a joint suite of more sophisticated and comprehensive numerical models of Mars' atmosphere. This collaboration, partly sponsored in recent years by the European Space Agency in connection with the associated development of a climate database for Mars[3], culminated in a suite of global circulation models[4], in which both groups share a library of parametrisation schemes, but in which the Oxford team use a spectral representation of horizontal fields (in the form of spherical harmonics) and the LMD group use a grid-point finite difference representation. These models were described in some detail by Forget et al.[4], and their preliminary validation and use in the construction of first versions of the European Mars Climate Database by Lewis et al.[3]. In the present report, we will review further developments which have taken place since the latter papers were published. Aspects of these developments which are common to both the LMD and Oxford groups will also be covered in the companion contribution by Forget et al. in this meeting, and so will only be touched on briefly here. Instead, we will concentrate on those advances which are more specific to the Oxford version of the model. In the following sections, we outline the main new developments to the model formulation since 1999. Subsequent sections then describe some recent examples where the new model is being utilised to advance a diverse range of studies of Mars atmospheric science

Towards a global model of the martian atmosphere

In an effort to continuously improve the capabilities of the Martian atmospheric predictions at LMD, the GCM has been extended into thermospheric heights thus creating the first model to self-consistently couple the lower and upper regions of the Martian atmosphere. The behaviour of the Martian thermosphere is strongly influenced by lower atmospheric processes and has complex dynamics. Such a fully coupled model will certainly aid in the preparation of future missions and on the analysis of future high altitude data, as well as serve as a base for the simulation of ionospheric processes, escape, etc

Mars Pathfinder meteorological observations on the basis of results of an atmospheric global circulation model

The Mars Pathfinder Meteorological Package (ASI/MET) will measure the local pressure, temperature, and winds at its future landing site, somewhere between the latitudes 0 deg N and 30 deg N. Comparable measurements have already been obtained at the surface of Mars by the Viking Landers at 22 deg N (VL1) and 48 deg N (VL2), providing much useful information on the martian atmosphere. In particular the pressure measurements contain very instructive information on the global atmospheric circulation. At the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD), we have analyzed and simulated these measurements with a martian atmospheric global circulation model (GCM), which was the first to simulate the martian atmospheric circulation over more than 1 year. The model is able to reproduce rather accurately many observed features of the martian atmosphere, including the long- and short-period oscillations of the surface pressure observed by the Viking landers. From a meteorological point of view, we think that a landing site located near or at the equator would be an interesting choice

Modeling of the general circulation with the LMD-AOPP-IAA GCM: Update on model design and comparison with observations

The LMD-AOPP GCM is developed conjointly by LMD in Paris and AOPP in Oxford, with the collaboration of IAA in Granada for the physical processes specific to the upper atmosphere. The collaboration between the two teams is based on the use of two different dynamical core (gridpoint at LMD, spectral at AOPP), which allow us to estimate the likely uncertainty arising from certain types of modeling errors. Similarly, we use different schemes to compute tracer transport, etc. The work has benefited from support from ESA (since 1995) and CNES (since 2000). Within that context, the GCMs are used to produce a Martian climate 'database' which is used by more than 30 teams around the world for mission design and scientific studies (see Bingham et al., this issue and Lewis et al., 1999). The baseline version of the GCM is described in detail in Forget et al. (1999). Here we describe the recent improvement and design changes since this publication. Compared to this previous version, the new GCM covers a wider range of altitude, from 0 to 120km in the vertical, it uses improved topography and thermal inertia surface maps from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), and includes a new 'dust scenario' to describe the distribution of airborne dust in the atmosphere

The Mars Climate Database

The Mars Climate Database (MCD) [1] is a database of statistics describing the climate and environment of the Martian atmosphere. It was constructed directly on the basis of output from mulitannual integrations of two general circulation models (GCMs)developed by Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du CNRS, France, the University of Oxford, UK, and Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia, Spain, with support from the European Space Agency (ESA) and Centre National d–Etudes Spatiales (CNES). A description of the MCD is given along with a comparison between spacecraft observations of Mars and results predicted at similar locations and times in the MCD. The MCD can be used as a tool for mission planning and has been applied to prepare for several missions in Europe and the USA. It also provides information for mission design specialists on the mean state and variability of the Martian environment from the surface to above 120km. The GCMs on which the database is founded, include a set of physical parameterizations (radiative transfer in the visible and thermal infrared ranges, turbulent mixing, condensation-sublimation of CO2, thermal conduction in the soil and representation of gravity waves) and two different codes for the representation of large scale dynamics: a spectral code for the AOPP version and a grid-point code for the LMD version. The GCMs correctly reproduce the main meteorological features of Mars, as observed by the Mariner 9 and Viking orbiters, the Viking landers, and Mars Global Surveyor (MGS). As well as the standard statistical measures for mission design studies, the MCD includes a novel representation of large-scale variability, using empirical eigenfunctions derived from an analysis of the full simulations, and small-scale variability based on parameterizations of processes such as gravity wave propagation. The database allows the user to choose from 5 dust storm scenarios including a best guess, default scenario, deduced from recent MGS observations, an upper boundary for an atmosphere without dust storms, as observed by Viking the landers, and a clear, cold, lower boundary scenario, as observed by Phobos 2 and from Earth. The full version of the MCD is available on CDROM (for UNIX systems and PCs) and is also accessible through an interactive WWW interface at http://www-mars.lmd.jussieu.fr/

Modeling the martian atmosphere with the LMD global climate model

Introduction: For several years we have been developing a 3D Global Climate Model (GCM) for Mars derived from the models used on Earth for weather forecasting or climate changes studies [1]. The purpose of such a project is ambitious: we wish to build a 'Mars simulator' based only on physical equations, with no tailor-made forcing, but able to reproduce all the available observations of the Martian climate (temperatures, winds, but also clouds, dust, ices, chemical species, etc...). The GCM is constantly evolving, thanks to a contnuous collaboration between several teams based in France (LMD, SA), the UK (The Open University, University of Oxford) and Spain (Instituto de Astrofisica de Andalucia), and with the support of ESA and CNES. We are currently working on an improved version of the model. Several new parametrisation are included in the heart of the model (radiative transfer, surface and subsurface processes, dynamics) and the applications of the GCM are in contnuous development (Water, dust, CO2, radon cycles, photochemistry, thermosphere, ionosphere, etc...

Atmospheric transport and chemistry of trace gases in LMDz5B: evaluation and implications for inverse modelling

Representation of atmospheric transport is a major source of error in the estimation of greenhouse gas sources and sinks by inverse modelling. Here we assess the impact on trace gas mole fractions of the new physical parameterizations recently implemented in the atmospheric global climate model LMDz to improve vertical diffusion, mesoscale mixing by thermal plumes in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), and deep convection in the troposphere. At the same time, the horizontal and vertical resolution of the model used in the inverse system has been increased. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of these developments on the representation of trace gas transport and chemistry, and to anticipate the implications for inversions of greenhouse gas emissions using such an updated model. Comparison of a one-dimensional version of LMDz with large eddy simulations shows that the thermal scheme simulates shallow convective tracer transport in the PBL over land very efficiently, and much better than previous versions of the model. This result is confirmed in three-dimensional simulations, by a much improved reproduction of the radon-222 diurnal cycle. However, the enhanced dynamics of tracer concentrations induces a stronger sensitivity of the new LMDz configuration to external meteorological forcings. At larger scales, the inter-hemispheric exchange is slightly slower when using the new version of the model, bringing them closer to observations. The increase in the vertical resolution (from 19 to 39 layers) significantly improves the representation of stratosphere/troposphere exchange. Furthermore, changes in atmospheric thermodynamic variables, such as temperature, due to changes in the PBL mixing modify chemical reaction rates, which perturb chemical equilibriums of reactive trace gases. One implication of LMDz model developments for future inversions of greenhouse gas emissions is the ability of the updated system to assimilate a larger amount of high-frequency data sampled at high-variability stations. Others implications are discussed at the end of the paper

Back to the basics: improving the prediction of temperature, pressure and winds in the LMD general circulation model

International audienc

The art and science of climate model tuning

PublishedThis is the final version of the article. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this record.We survey the rationale and diversity of approaches for tuning, a fundamental aspect of climate modeling which should be more systematically documented and taken into account in multi-model analysis. The process of parameter estimation targeting a chosen set of observations is an essential aspect of numerical modeling. This process is usually named tuning in the climate modeling community. In climate models, the variety and complexity of physical processes involved, and their interplay through a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, must be summarized in a series of approximate sub-models. Most sub-models depend on uncertain parameters. Tuning consists of adjusting the values of these parameters to bring the solution as a whole into line with aspects of the observed climate. Tuning is an essential aspect of climate modeling with its own scientific issues, which is probably not advertised enough outside the community of model developers. Optimization of climate models raises important questions about whether tuning methods a priori constrain the model results in unintended ways that would affect our confidence in climate projections. Here we present the definition and rationale behind model tuning, review specific methodological aspects, and survey the diversity of tuning approaches used in current climate models. We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called ‘objective‘ methods in climate model tuning. We discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.The authors would like to thank the World Climate Research Program and its Working Group on Coupled Modeling for initiating and helping organize the workshop on model tuning in October 2014 in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. DE-AC52-07NA27344. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sup- ported by the U.S. National Science Foundation. The contribution of Yun Qian was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science as part of the Earth System Modeling Program. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL0183

Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth like planets

Because the solar luminosity increases over geological timescales, Earth climate is expected to warm, increasing water evaporation which, in turn, enhances the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can "runaway" until all the oceans are evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause oceans to escape to space before the runaway greenhouse occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated with unidimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of Earth's climate. Here we use a 3D global climate model to show that the threshold for the runaway greenhouse is about 375 W/m$^2$, significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback on the long term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to defer the runaway greenhouse limit to higher insolation than inferred from 1D models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains cold and dry enough to hamper atmospheric water escape, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for Venus early water history and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars.Comment: Published in Nature. Online publication date: December 12, 2013. Accepted version before journal editing and with Supplementary Informatio